Sillin/My Turn: Wrong on climate change
The Recorder declared the “man-made global warming” debate over: “those who want to continue arguing should step out of the way.”
Is The Recorder aware that the Hadley Climate Research Unit, National Climatic Data Center, Goddard Institute of Space Science, Remote Sensing System, and Microwave Sounding Unit show no warming since 1997? That means 2014 college graduates have experienced no warming since kindergarten. (http://www.climate4you.com)
Today, the NCDC reports 0.52 C warming between 1915 and 2000. In 2008 for the same period using the same data, it reported 0.39 C. Twenty-three percent of the warming that NCDC reports today is an artifact of data adjustments. The Recorder is correct: Man has played a role in reported warming! (http://www.climate4you.com)
Are we experiencing climate-related disasters? Naturally! Weather events make climate. We have experienced “disasters” throughout history. It is bizarre to assert that the 1978 blizzard, Agnes (1972), Connie and Diane (1955), 1938’s Great Hurricane, and the 1936 flood were natural but Sandy and Isaac are somehow manmade. Is it a tacit admission that temperature trends cited in the 1990s as evidence of catastrophe no longer support the manmade global warming meme?
Is there more extreme weather now? At the July 13, 2013, Senate hearing, “Climate Change: It’s Happening Now,” University of Colorado Environmental Scientist Roger Pielke Jr. showed that there are no trends of increased tornados, hurricanes, floods, precipitation or droughts. None. Furthermore Pielke showed that disaster costs as a GDP percentage are decreasing.
What of rising sea levels due to melting glaciers? In the journal Science, November 2012, 26 scientists contributed to “A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance.” They conclude that over the last 20 years melt water from Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets has contributed under 0.5 inches to global sea level rise. At that rate it will be 500 years before ice loss raises sea level a foot. (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183)
Such data will not frighten citizens into surrendering liberties. The Recorder refers instead to the latest catastrophic prediction, Thwaites glacier melting and a sudden collapse of an ice sheet. Unfortunately so many hair-raising scenarios have been served up that the hair just doesn’t respond anymore.
The bottom line: the IPCC predicts 0.3 degrees C warming per decade. The five principal temperature records for the last three decades indicate about 0.1 degrees C. Thirty years of temperature observations show a warming rate a third of the IPCC prediction. This doesn’t give one much confidence in IPCC predictions.
The Recorder hasn’t reported other climate science investigations. It publishes juvenile cartoons that mock them. Some of the research The Recorder has missed:
Judith Curry’s theory on sequential and periodic energy transfer between oceans, atmosphere, and ice.
CERN’s Cloud experiment testing Henrik Svensmark’s theory on aerosol creation and variability of Earth’s albedo caused by changing cloud cover. (IPCC models are very poor at modeling cloud effects; yet we all know first-hand how much relief a passing cloud provides.)
Something else the IPCC poorly models are the two major, recently identified oceanic temperature oscillations, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. As recently discovered phenomena the role of the PDO and AMO is unclear. The AMO has been in a warming trend since about 1970 and appears to have peaked. If it holds true to form the AMO will begin a cooling trend shortly. This all corresponds well with temperature trends in the northern hemisphere.
The CO2/anthropocentric climate change hypothesis will get some things right, but like most hypotheses, with more information it will undergo revision and a better climate model will replace it.
There is more to learn about the fascinating subject of climate. The Recorder should support free inquiry and not close its mind to all but one incomplete model.
William Sillin lives in Sunderland.