In this area, education key to income

[ Originally published on: Saturday, October 25, 2008 ]

BERNARDSTON -- Sweeping demographic changes are on the state's horizon -- and have already begun arriving, a top planning expert told local business and municipal leaders Friday.

Declining birth rates, an aging population, a surge in immigration and ''tremendous turnover of agricultural land'' are among the realities facing the region, said John R. Mullin, a professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Massachusetts.

''The roller coaster's just beginning,'' Mullin, dean of the graduate school told about 100 Franklin County Chamber of Commerce members. ''This is a bellwether moment as a region, and there are major changes in terms of where we're going to go as a state and as a region.''

Nothing will be more important than providing quality education, with community colleges playing a key role, he emphasized.

''The educational starting point to making it in Massachusetts is starting at Grade 14. (Just having) a high school degree is really going to be condemning people to not being able to make it here,'' but to be stuck in ''hamburger-helper … below blue-collar jobs. … In Massachusetts, it's absolutely fundamental to get a living wage of $17 to $18 an hour.''

For the individual student, that means ''condemned never to own a home, even with a spouse. The starting point for everyone now is the community college degree.''

For communities, ''There's a direct correlation between MCAS (standardized test) scores and the value of housing, said Mullin, pointing to Cisco Systems and other high-tech employers who ''want nothing but first-class'' schools as a prerequisite to locating here.

With a dramatic rise in immigration and English as a Second Language as critical to the success of Russian, Dominican and other immigrants pouring into the state, he lamented as ''terrible'' the fact that many schools are eliminating ESL programs.

At the same time, that Massachusetts has one of the nation's lowest birth rates -- 0.9 per household -- and an overall aging population has broader implications for education, Mullin said. Instead of 75 percent of families having some connection with schools, he predicted a future 20 years down the road where that connection is only 25 percent.

''What that disconnection of families from schools, what does that mean about the priorities from our communities?'' he asked.

Because of the aging population -- with the emergence of a new ''old, old'' demographic group ages 85 and older -- people are staying in their jobs longer, so that young people just out of college may find it takes longer to enter the workforce.

''That means … your kid's going to be underemployed for a while,'' he told the gathering. ''The time it takes for that person to get in gear is increasing, as a direct result of people staying in the workforce longer. Make sure your kids really have breadth (of training) and are able to move and be adaptable,'' he said.

That's especially true because young people today can expect to have seven or 10 jobs during their career.

Broadband

Those jobs, increasingly, will demand access to high-speed telecommunication for communities, Mullin said. Increasingly, education itself is being provided online, with University of Phoenix online programs accounting for 7 percent of UMass graduate students and expected to double.

''Without broadband, you're dead,'' he emphasized, especially as an increasing segment of the economy works from home, connected to the world economy and dependent on high-tech commerce.

Mullin pointed to medicine and education as having the greatest employment potential, with opportunity for advancement in health-related careers, but added that the emergence of the renewable-energy sector should provide ''tremendous opportunity for your sons and daughters.''

He cited a lack of developable land for industrial parks and also to ''tons and tons of acres'' of farmland in the hands of farmers with an average age of over 65. ''That's something that will have a major, major impact,'' Mullin added.

Yet even as the growth pushes in from the east and development pushes northward from Connecticut, the natural resources of western Massachusetts can provide an ''absolute advantage,'' whether it's the untapped forest products or the possibility as a destination for bird-watching enthusiasts.

''I think we're in for a unique time,'' Mullin said ''I hope we can do great things.''

 

---