Good morning!
Close to $200 million will be wagered on the 150th Kentucky Derby this evening, so let’s take a look at the contenders and which horse or horses Recorder handicapper John Dobrydnio thinks will win.

The 5-2 morning line favorite is Fierceness which drew the tough 17 post. The colt is owned by Mike Repole who never saw a television camera he didn’t like, trained by Todd Pletcher and will be ridden by John Velazquez. 

The 3-year-old brown colt cost $35,000 at auction and has earned $1.7 million in purse money, but is wildly inconsistent. Fierceness broke his maiden by 11 1/2 lengths, then finished seventh at 1-to-2 odds. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile and then finished third at 1-to-5.

He romped by 13 1/2 lengths in the Florida Derby and had a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, so what happens today? Railbirds say if you missed the wedding, don’t go to the funeral.

Oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s 3-1 second choice, Sierra Leone, will break from the second post. Trained by Chad Brown with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons, Sierra Leone cost $2.3 million at the yearling sale and has three wins in four starts. His only runner-up was by a nose in the mud at the Fair Grounds in February.

The 8-1 third choice is Catching Freedom from the four post. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Flavien Prat, Catching Freedom’s speed figures have improved in each of his five starts from 72 in October to 97 at the Louisiana Derby where he closed from 11th on the backstretch to win by a length.

Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold worked a bullet best-of-70 on April 20 but drew the 18 post and is listed at 20-1. Resilience (20-1) won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct but exits the 19 post. 

Horses for courses include Honor Marie (20-1) with two wins at Churchill; Mystik Dan (20-1), Just Steel (20-1), Track Phantom (20-1), West Saratoga (50-1) and the aforementioned Catching Freedom and Stronghold all have one win in Louisville.

Every year the Kentucky Derby has its share of precocious, lightly-raced colts to tempt bettors. T O Password (30-1) was bred and raced in Japan and has two career starts; Just a Touch (10-1) and Catalytic (30-1) have only three.

The enigmatic Forever Young (10-1) was bred in Japan and is owned by film actor Susumu Fujita. Five times trainer Yoshito Yahagi has saddled Forever Young, and five times it’s won under jockey Ryusei Sakai.

Who wins and how will it unfold after they leave the starting gate?

“Fierceness and Sierra Leone will both be overbet,” said Dobrydnio, who picked all three Triple Crown winners last year — Mage ($32.42) in the Kentucky Derby, National Treasure ($7.80) in the Preakness and Arcangelo ($17.80) in the Belmont.

“I’m using Track Phantom. I like his competitiveness, although he gets caught a lot.”

Listed at 20-1 and trained by Steve Asmussen with Joel Rosario in the saddle, Track Phantom won three straight races but coughed up the lead his last two starts in the Risen Star and La. Derby at the Fair Grounds. 

“This horse, he’s strong. I like the way he strides out, and Asmussen’s adding blinkers that’ll put a little more speed in him down the stretch.

“I’m going to bet Track Phantom and Catching Freedom both to win and tie them up in exactas with the Japanese horse Forever Young, then I’m going to go price TVs at BJ’s, because if Repole wins my TV gets shattered.”

Post time is 6:57 p.m. The forecast is for partly sunny skies with a chance of showers and temps in the low 80s. Perfect weather for a day at the races.

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Regrets, I’ve had a few, like claiming the Astros looked good in spring training, or that Tyler O’Neill is in the Who’s Who of Nobodys, or that the Pirates-Yankees World Series was in 1962. “That was 1960. The Yankees beating the Giants was in 1962,” writes Vinny Natale.

Nor should I have suggested that Bill Mazeroski used a corked bat to win the aforementioned Fall Classic at Forbes Field. Natale and John Lacey both researched it and came up empty.

My apologies for denigrating the most historic home run of the 20th century. The uniform Mazeroski wore and the bat he used are on display at the Heinz History Center in Pittsburgh.

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Coby Mayo is on the cusp of being the next Oriole farmhand to break into the bigs. A fourth round pick out of Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., (yes, that school), the 6-5, 235-pound infielder/outfielder is batting .333 with 10 home runs and 26 RBIs for Norfolk. 

When MLB Radio’s Jim Bowden asked where Mayo could fit in the O’s stacked lineup, GM Mike Egan said, “We’ll figure it out. We’re gonna make room for him.”

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SQUIBBERS: Nifty double play turned by the Pioneer infield this week when they nailed two Frontier runners both at home plate. … Cubs radio voice Pat Hughes at Fenway Park last weekend: “They’re doing the wave here at Fenway Park. That’s something you don’t see at Wrigley Field.”  … Jets pick Malachi Corley of Western Ky., is nicknamed YAC for Yards After Catch. … Sports reporter Sage Steele, whose dad Gary Steele was the first African American football player at Army, on covering pro sports: “NHL athletes are the best pro athletes to deal with. The most professional, the most kind, genuine, welcoming, they’re the best. Baseball’s the toughest.” … John Sterling’s “Yankees win!” has joined Sinatra’s “New York, New York” as part of the postgame celebration at the Stadium. … Sirius-XM is re-airing Sterling’s “playing favorites” Sinatra special. “I always wanted to be a disc jockey on WNEW,” Sterling said of the once-renowned AM station that folded in 1992. … Reader Kevin Hassett who was chair of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump administration was on Fox News last month. Hassett is a GHS grad. … At this writing Jackson Holliday was 4-for-22 (.181) since the Birds shipped him back to Norfolk. … Alex Ovechkin was scoreless during the Rangers’ four-game sweep against Washington. As a teenager Ocvechkin played in three World Junior Under-20 Championships in consecutive years. He scored 18 goals in 18 games and the Caps took him with the first overall pick in 2004. … Chris Sale is 4-1 for the Braves. Enough said. … Bench jockeying is part of the game. Local ump Dick Hildreth said he never minded as long as the barbs were clever. One of his favorites: “You won’t need to go to bed tonight ump, you’ve slept through the first four innings!’”

Chip Ainsworth is an award-winning columnist who has penned his observations about sports for decades in the Pioneer Valley. He can be reached at chipjet715@icloud.com