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Letter: Climate change?

Rather than respond point by point to the most recent columns on refuting climate change “deniers” allow me to focus on a single idea and leave it at that.

The 2008 NCDC/NOAA “State of the Climate” report posed the question of whether or not the decade-long pause in warming falsified global warming predictions. Their answer was “No.”

Ten-year pauses appear in the CO2 sensitive climate models. However they also wrote “The simulations rule out zero trends for intervals of 15 years or more ... an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”

In short, NCDC/NOAA said 10-year pauses do not falsify the computer model predictions but a 15-year pause would. The pause continued and observations today show a widening discrepancy between the climate models and the real world. By NCDC/NOAA’s own standards they have discredited the computer models.

In that spirit here is a falsifiable prediction. Unless scientists adjust their climate models’ to lower CO2 sensitivity, over the next 5 years those models will be further invalidated by the widening discrepancy between observed and predicted temperatures. The unrealistic bias toward enhanced CO2 warming in simulations will become ever more obvious. Any warming of the atmosphere will be less than what the models predict. The result: more people will reject dire predictions premised on biased models.

Simply put, less warming than predicted and more skepticism than now. See you in 2019.



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