After a brief period of decline, the COVID-19 transmission risk has increased to “moderate” in the four communities involved in the Contact Tracing Collaborative, which consists of Greenfield, Deerfield, Montague and Sunderland.

In the past week, the daily average for hospitalizations has increased slightly, from 4 to 4.1, as have the copies of virus in the wastewater tested in the four communities, according to the Greenfield Health Department.

On the other hand, there are fewer active cluster infections (of three or more people at one site), with five last week compared to eight the week before. The positivity rate and case incidences have also decreased, but Greenfield Heath Director Jennifer Hoffman advised these data points should be considered alongside the fact that fewer PCR tests are being done following the closure of testing sites at Greenfield Community College and the South County Senior Center that were operated by Curative Inc.

On Wednesday evening, Public Health Nurse Megan Tudryn told Greenfield Board of Health members that overall, COVID-19 is slowing down in the Greenfield community.

“We’re in good shape right now,” she said.

Still, the Contact Tracing Collaborative is encouraging masking, based on its method for determining risk levels.

In combination with wastewater testing — people with an active COVID-19 infection excrete the virus in their stool, and samples from wastewater treatment plants can be analyzed to estimate community virus levels — the four municipalities factor in hospitalization numbers, positivity rates and case numbers to determine risk levels. Meanwhile, health officials continue to talk with nursing homes, businesses and schools to track cluster infections. Members of the collaborative also recently added school absenteeism as a new measure to compensate for the loss of the PCR testing.

The following three zones, defined by the Contact Tracing Collaborative, are used to gauge risk levels of COVID-19 transmission in the four communities. For the risk level in the area to change, at least two measures need to apply.

Red zone: High COVID-19 risk

Masking recommended.

■Cluster infections (of three or more people at one site): five or more.

■Percent positive tests out of total tests performed: greater than 10%.

■Hospitalizations: five or more.

■Increase in case trend.

■Increase in wastewater trend.

Yellow zone: Moderate COVID-19 risk

Masking encouraged.

■One to four cluster infections.

■Stable positive testing.

■Fewer than five hospitalizations.

■Stable case incidence.

■Stable wastewater.

Green zone: Low to minimal COVID-19 risk

Masking optional.

■No cluster infections.

■Decrease in positive tests.

■Decrease in hospitalizations.

■Decrease in case incidence.

■Decreased virus copies in wastewater.

Reporter Mary Byrne can be reached at mbyrne@recorder.com or 413-930-4429.

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